> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://beirutwire.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # IMF Warns AI Could Make Rich Countries Richer and Leave the Rest of the World Behind - URL: https://beirutwire.com/imf-warns-ai-could-make-rich-countries-richer-and-leave-the-rest-of-the-world-behind/ - Published: 2026-10-23T04:55:06.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-23T04:55:06.000Z - Description: The IMF is warning that artificial intelligence could widen the gap between rich and poor countries, with advanced economies potentially capturing more than twice the productivity gains of low-income nations. - Author: Beirut Wire - Tags: Economy Artificial intelligence could generate one of the greatest economic transformations in modern history. But the International Monetary Fund is warning that the wealth it creates may be distributed very unevenly. As the IMF and World Bank concluded their annual meetings in Bangkok, officials warned that AI could deepen inequality between rich and poor countries, strengthen the dominance of major technology companies and disrupt employment, particularly among younger workers. The warning comes at a remarkable moment. AI investment is already helping support global economic growth despite the Middle East war, high energy prices and rising government debt. Yet the same technology keeping parts of the world economy expanding could also widen the economic divide between countries capable of adopting it and those struggling to keep up. According to IMF research, advanced economies could experience productivity gains from AI more than twice as large as those in low-income countries. The reason is not simply that wealthy countries have better technology. They possess the infrastructure, capital, workforce and institutions required to turn that technology into economic output. **A technological revolution with unequal winners** The United States is at the center of the AI boom. American companies dominate the development of frontier AI models, including OpenAI, Anthropic and Google. They also control much of the cloud infrastructure, software ecosystem and investment capital supporting the industry. Meanwhile, Nvidia and other semiconductor companies are benefiting from extraordinary demand for the hardware needed to train and operate increasingly powerful systems. That investment is already affecting economic growth. The IMF estimates that AI adoption could eventually raise annual global growth by as much as half a percentage point. But those gains will not arrive everywhere simultaneously. Countries producing advanced semiconductors, building data centers and integrating AI into their businesses are positioned to benefit first. Other economies may spend years simply trying to establish the conditions necessary for adoption. The difference begins with infrastructure. AI requires reliable electricity. It requires affordable internet access. It requires modern computing systems. And it requires workers capable of using increasingly sophisticated software. Those conditions are far from universal. In many developing economies, electricity remains unreliable, internet connections are expensive and businesses lack the capital required to invest in new technology. The result could be a widening productivity gap. American or European companies may use AI to produce more output with fewer resources, while businesses in poorer countries continue relying on older, less efficient methods. Over time, that difference compounds. Higher productivity generates greater profits. Greater profits finance more investment. More investment produces additional technological advantages. Countries already ahead could pull even further away. **AI could disrupt the development model of poorer countries** The implications extend beyond access to technology. For decades, developing economies relied on relatively inexpensive labor to attract foreign investment. Manufacturing moved from wealthy countries to locations where workers could produce goods at lower cost. Similar trends emerged in outsourcing, customer support, software services and back-office administration. AI could weaken parts of that model. If American companies can automate customer service, accounting, coding and administrative tasks, they may have less incentive to outsource those activities abroad. Advanced robotics could eventually reduce some of the labor-cost advantages that helped developing countries attract factories. This does not mean globalization will end or that manufacturing will necessarily return to wealthy countries. But the traditional route from inexpensive labor to higher incomes could become more difficult. An IMF analysis published earlier this year warned that AI-driven automation could erode some established development pathways, particularly where countries depend on labor-intensive exports and outsourced services. For poorer economies, the challenge is therefore not merely adopting AI. It is adapting their entire development strategy to a world where human labor may no longer provide the same competitive advantage. **The employment problem** The IMF estimates that approximately 40% of jobs worldwide are exposed to AI in some form, with the proportion reaching around 60% in advanced economies. Exposure does not mean that all those jobs will disappear. Some workers will become more productive. Others will see parts of their responsibilities automated. But certain occupations could face significant displacement. The effects may be particularly serious for younger workers. Entry-level positions in consulting, law, finance, software development and administration have traditionally allowed graduates to acquire professional experience. Those are also occupations containing tasks that AI can increasingly perform. Research. Document preparation. Financial modeling. Coding. Data analysis. Administrative coordination. If companies automate much of that work, graduates may find fewer opportunities to enter professional careers. That creates a problem extending beyond immediate unemployment. Today’s junior employees are tomorrow’s managers, engineers and specialists. If the first stages of professional development disappear, businesses will eventually need new ways to train experienced workers. The IMF has warned that younger people and middle-income employees could face considerable pressure as AI adoption accelerates. Meanwhile, workers possessing advanced AI skills may command higher wages. The economic gap between those able to work effectively with AI and those whose tasks are automated could widen significantly. **The concentration of economic power** There is another concern. The enormous cost of developing frontier AI systems means relatively few companies can compete at the highest level. Training advanced models requires specialized chips, data centers, engineers, electricity and billions of dollars in capital. That creates barriers to entry for smaller companies and developing economies. As AI becomes embedded in business operations, a growing share of economic activity could depend on technologies controlled by a small group of firms. The IMF has warned that the concentration of computing infrastructure and frontier models could reinforce existing market power. For countries dependent on foreign AI providers, that could create a new form of technological dependency. Their businesses may benefit from AI without capturing a significant share of the profits generated by the underlying technology. **A warning particularly relevant to Lebanon** For countries such as Lebanon, the implications are substantial. AI provides opportunities for entrepreneurs, software developers and businesses to compete internationally without building expensive physical infrastructure. A small Lebanese company can increasingly use AI tools that were previously available only to much larger organizations. But Lebanon also faces obstacles that the IMF identifies as critical. Unreliable electricity. Limited access to financing. Weak institutional capacity. And an economy struggling to attract long-term investment. These weaknesses could become even more costly as technology advances. A country that cannot reliably power its businesses will struggle to participate fully in an economy increasingly dependent on computing infrastructure. At the same time, Lebanon’s educated workforce could benefit from international demand for AI-related services if investment in skills and digital infrastructure improves. The opportunity exists, but capturing it will require more than access to chatbots. **The next great economic divide** The IMF is not arguing that AI should be slowed simply because its benefits may be unequal. The technology has the potential to increase productivity, accelerate scientific research, improve public services and lower costs throughout the economy. The challenge is ensuring that its advantages spread beyond the countries and companies currently leading development. That will depend on education, reliable infrastructure, competitive markets and the ability of businesses to adopt new technologies. The historical lesson is clear. Technological revolutions create enormous wealth, but countries do not benefit equally simply because a new technology exists. They benefit when they possess the institutions and capabilities required to use it productively. AI may prove to be an even more powerful example. The world could become substantially richer over the next decade. But if the IMF’s concerns materialize, that wealth could become increasingly concentrated among a relatively small number of countries, companies and highly skilled workers. The next global economic divide may no longer be defined primarily by who has access to oil, factories or inexpensive labor. It may be defined by who can use artificial intelligence to produce economic value, and who cannot.