The Q3 Real Estate Report: Market Rebounds 40%, Annual Sales Remain Down

Lebanon’s property market staged a surprisingly strong rebound over the summer, with registered sales rising by roughly 40% in the third quarter compared with the previous three months.

But the recovery comes with an important warning.

Even after the rebound, Lebanon has still recorded around 20% fewer property transactions this year than it did over the same period in 2025.

The latest Land Registry figures show why the market can look both strong and weak at the same time.

Property sales accelerated sharply through July, August and September.

Around 17,000 transactions were registered during the third quarter, compared with roughly 12,100 between April and June, producing a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 40%.

September was particularly strong.

Lebanon registered 6,589 property sales during the month, the highest monthly figure of 2026 and 28% above August. The value of transactions surged even faster, rising almost 62% in a single month to approximately $804 million.

That is a significant improvement from the beginning of the year.

Lebanon entered 2026 with renewed conflict weighing heavily on confidence. By the end of March, the country had recorded fewer than 12,000 transactions, while activity in some southern districts had almost disappeared.

The market began turning after April.

May recorded the first monthly increase in transactions following the ceasefire announcement. June accelerated further. July reached what was then the strongest month of the year, before September overtook it.

The direction is therefore clear.

Buyers are returning.

But Lebanon is still far from a broad property boom.

Between January and September, Credit Libanais counted 41,138 registered property sales, down 20.4% from 51,683 during the same period last year.

The value of those transactions tells a very different story.

Despite the lower number of deals, total registered sales reached approximately $4.55 billion during the first nine months, up 3.3% from around $4.40 billion a year earlier.

Fewer properties are being sold.

But considerably more money is being spent on the average transaction.

The average registered sale during the first nine months of 2026 was approximately $110,600, nearly 30% higher than the roughly $85,200 average recorded during the same period last year.

In September alone, the average transaction rose to about $122,000.

That distinction is important.

It does not necessarily mean Lebanese property prices have risen 30%.

Land Registry figures measure the value of properties changing hands, not standardized prices for comparable apartments or land.

A higher average transaction could reflect actual price increases, more sales of expensive properties, larger properties being purchased, or a combination of all three.

The data do not allow those effects to be separated.

Still, the pattern tells us something about the type of buyer driving Lebanon’s recovery.

This remains overwhelmingly a cash market.

Lebanon still lacks a functioning mortgage market on anything resembling its pre-2019 scale. Banks remain impaired, long-term housing credit is scarce and much of the property market depends on buyers who already possess fresh dollars.

That naturally favors wealthier Lebanese, expatriates and families with savings abroad.

It also helps explain how transaction values can rise even while the number of buyers remains below last year.

The foreign-buyer story is less dramatic than might be assumed.

Non-Lebanese buyers accounted for only 1.47% of transactions by September, down from 2.09% in 2025 and 2.36% in 2024.

So this is not primarily a wave of foreigners buying Lebanon.

The market is overwhelmingly being driven by Lebanese purchasers, including diaspora capital.

There is another reason to be cautious when comparing 2026 with last year.

The 2025 numbers themselves were distorted.

Credit Libanais noted that many transactions registered during 2025 were actually older deals that had accumulated during Land Registry strikes and closures, particularly in Mount Lebanon. As registries resumed work, they processed large backlogs.

That means the unusually high 2025 transaction count did not perfectly represent property demand occurring during 2025 itself.

This makes the current 20% annual decline look somewhat worse than the underlying market probably is.

The more useful indicator may therefore be the trajectory within 2026.

And on that measure, conditions have improved considerably.

By May, transaction value for the year was running almost 18% below 2025.

By June, the gap had narrowed to roughly 8%.

By July, it was around 5%.

By August, less than 4%.

By September, cumulative transaction value had finally moved 3.3% above the same period last year.

That is a genuine turnaround.

But it should be called stabilization before it is called a full recovery.

Lebanon’s property market still faces the same structural problems it has faced since the financial collapse.

Mortgage financing remains extremely limited.

The banking sector has not been normalized.

Political and security risks remain high.

Construction activity is weak, with cumulative building permits down more than 32% through July.

And buyers remain highly sensitive to security conditions.

The rebound itself demonstrates that.

When fighting intensified, transactions collapsed.

When uncertainty eased, buyers returned.

Lebanese property therefore remains partly a confidence trade.

People with dollars continue to view apartments and land as one of the few tangible stores of wealth available inside a country whose banking system destroyed confidence in financial assets.

Property offers something a frozen bank account does not: direct ownership of a physical asset.

That helps explain why Lebanese real estate has remained remarkably resilient through years of economic crisis.

The third quarter provides the clearest evidence yet that demand can recover quickly when conditions stabilize.

A roughly 40% quarterly increase is substantial.

September’s 6,589 transactions are also the strongest monthly reading this year.

But the annual picture prevents any premature celebration.

There are still fewer buyers than last year.

Credit remains scarce.

Foreign participation remains low.

And much of the rebound is being driven by larger cash transactions rather than a broad return of ordinary mortgage-financed homebuyers.

Lebanon’s property market is moving again.

It just has not fully recovered yet.