> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://beirutwire.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Lebanon’s Private Sector Sounds the Alarm: “Final Warning” Before a Major Economic Collapse - URL: https://beirutwire.com/lebanons-private-sector-sounds-the-alarm-final-warning-before-a-major-economic-collapse/ - Published: 2026-10-09T05:38:13.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-09T05:38:13.000Z - Description: Mohamed Choucair, head of Lebanon’s Economic Organizations, has issued what he called a “final warning” before a major economic collapse, saying the diesel bill has risen by 100% while the economy continues to contract. - Author: Beirut Wire - Tags: Economy Lebanon’s business community is issuing one of its starkest warnings yet. Mohamed Choucair, head of the country’s Economic Organizations, said on MTV Thursday night that he was issuing a “final warning” before what he described as a major collapse of the Lebanese economy, adding that he had “no good news” to offer. His message was blunt. Lebanon is contracting again. Energy costs are exploding. The private sector is absorbing one shock after another. And Choucair says the country is approaching the point where businesses will simply no longer be able to carry the burden. He told MTV that the diesel bill has risen by 100%, warning that if the economy collapses, “there will be neither workers nor a state left,” and calling for relief for the private sector. The warning comes at a moment when almost every major pressure facing Lebanese businesses is moving in the wrong direction. The World Bank expects Lebanon’s economy to contract by 6.4% in 2026 after a brief 4.2% rebound last year. It says renewed conflict has disrupted tourism, consumption, investment and supply chains, while inflation is expected to reach 17.5%. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam acknowledged the same 6.4% contraction this week while defending the government’s 2027 budget. For businesses, however, GDP figures are only part of the story. The immediate problem is energy. Lebanon’s electricity system still provides only a limited number of hours of state power per day, forcing companies to rely heavily on private diesel generators. That means every increase in fuel prices is effectively another tax on doing business. A restaurant must pay more to refrigerate food. A factory must pay more to operate machinery. A supermarket must pay more to keep freezers running. A hotel must pay more to provide basic electricity. A logistics company pays more to fuel trucks. Then all of those businesses face higher transportation costs for their employees as well. Lebanon therefore experiences an oil shock twice: first through fuel itself, and then through an electricity system incapable of shielding the economy from it. That problem has become substantially worse as the wider Middle East war has driven energy prices higher. Brent crude remains around $100 a barrel, while international diesel markets have become particularly tight. Global governments are now accelerating releases from emergency oil reserves simply to keep fuel prices from rising further. Lebanese businesses have no comparable buffer. The country imports fuel and depends heavily on diesel because its electricity sector still does not function normally. Choucair’s warning therefore comes only days after Energy Minister Joe Saddi announced that he would stop attending Cabinet meetings until decisions are taken on the electricity crisis. It is an extraordinary situation. The energy minister is effectively protesting his own government because the energy system is failing. At the same time, business leaders are warning that the private economy keeping the country alive is approaching its limit. The disconnect becomes even harder to justify when looking at government policy. Lebanon’s 2027 budget is built around dramatically higher state revenues. The government says it has introduced no new taxes, but it is still counting on much stronger collections through existing taxes, fees and enforcement. In principle, improving collection is necessary. Lebanon has an enormous informal economy, widespread tax evasion and a state that cannot function without revenue. But the timing matters. The economy is shrinking. Energy costs have surged. Households are losing purchasing power. Businesses are already financing services the government fails to provide. And the private sector is simultaneously being asked to finance higher wages, transportation allowances and a larger state budget. There is a limit to how much can be extracted from the same productive base. Lebanon’s problem is not simply that the government collects too little money. It is that the country has spent decades making it extraordinarily expensive to produce anything. Companies pay private electricity bills because EDL fails. They often provide private health insurance because the public system is inadequate. They finance employee transportation because there is no meaningful national public-transport network. They operate inside a broken banking system that still cannot provide normal credit. And they face political and security risks that make long-term investment difficult. The result is a state that frequently depends on the private sector while simultaneously making that private sector harder to operate. Other business leaders are sounding similar alarms. Beirut Traders Association head Nicolas Chammas warned last week that institutions are “crippled” and said he feared October could be damaged and November disastrous. The Human Resources Professionals Syndicate has separately warned that private-sector employees can no longer absorb rising living, transportation, healthcare and education costs while taxes and fees continue eroding incomes. Even Economy Minister Amer Bisat has acknowledged the severity of the situation. He said last week that Lebanon is passing through a difficult period, that remittances have declined, external assistance remains limited and the economic contraction could approach levels not seen since the beginning of the crisis. He also acknowledged widespread disorder in generator pricing during August and September. The government can point to external shocks. And it is true that Lebanon did not create the global energy crisis. It did not create the Iran war. It cannot control international oil prices. But external shocks expose internal weakness. A country with reliable electricity can absorb an oil-price increase. A country with functioning banks can provide credit to businesses under pressure. A country with healthy public finances can temporarily reduce taxes or fees. A country with functioning infrastructure can lower operating costs elsewhere. Lebanon possesses almost none of those protections. That is why a rise in diesel prices becomes an existential economic threat. Choucair’s warning should therefore not be dismissed as ordinary lobbying from employers seeking lower costs. It is part of a much broader pattern. The World Bank says the economy is shrinking. The energy minister is boycotting Cabinet. Business associations are warning about collapse. Workers are demanding higher wages because their purchasing power is disappearing. And the government is preparing a budget that requires significantly more money from the same economy. Something eventually has to give. Lebanon cannot indefinitely finance a dysfunctional state by squeezing the businesses and workers still producing. If the private sector breaks, there is no hidden economic engine waiting behind it. That was Choucair’s most important point. There will be no workers to tax, no companies to regulate and eventually no state revenue to collect.