Germany’s Political Center Suffers a Historic Setback as the Right Wins One State and the Left Takes Berlin

Germany’s traditional political center has suffered one of its clearest electoral setbacks in decades, with voters simultaneously turning toward the far right in the east and the far left in the capital.

In Berlin, the Left Party won the state election with 25.3% of the vote, roughly doubling its previous result and pushing Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats out of first place. The CDU finished on 19%, the far-right Alternative for Germany on 16%, and the center-left Social Democrats on just 12.1%.

On the same day, the AfD came first in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, taking around 37% of the vote in exit polling and narrowly beating the governing Social Democrats. Merz’s CDU collapsed to around 5.5%, its worst performance in any German state election since the Federal Republic was founded in 1949.

The results follow an even bigger AfD breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt earlier this month, where the party won nearly 44% of the vote and 39 of 83 seats, putting it within reach of becoming the first far-right party to govern a German state since the Second World War.

Taken together, the elections point to an increasingly fragmented German political system.

For decades, power in Germany revolved primarily around the center-right CDU and center-left SPD, with smaller parties joining them in coalition governments. Both blocs are now losing voters in different directions.

In eastern Germany, the biggest beneficiary has been the AfD.

The party has built its support around opposition to immigration, skepticism toward Germany’s support for Ukraine, criticism of sanctions on Russia and hostility toward what it describes as an out-of-touch political establishment. In Saxony-Anhalt, economic insecurity and concern over Germany’s foreign-policy direction were among the major drivers of the vote.

Economic frustration has been especially powerful.

Germany’s economy has struggled with weak growth, high energy costs, pressure on its industrial base and uncertainty surrounding pensions and household living standards. In the former East Germany, average household wealth remains roughly half the western level even though gaps in employment and income have narrowed significantly since reunification.

Those structural differences have helped fuel resentment toward the established parties.

The AfD has increasingly presented itself as the vehicle for voters who believe Berlin has prioritized climate policy, immigration management, Ukraine and European commitments over the economic concerns of ordinary Germans.

But Berlin itself moved in almost the opposite ideological direction.

The Left Party won the capital after campaigning heavily on soaring housing costs and rents. Its lead candidate, Elif Eralp, pledged to move ahead with plans to nationalize large private housing companies, potentially transferring around 220,000 apartments into public ownership.

The proposal follows a 2021 Berlin referendum in which 58% of participating voters backed legislation aimed at expropriating major corporate landlords.

That policy remains controversial.

SPD officials have estimated that implementing it could cost around €20 billion, while a more recent Infratest Dimap survey found only 37% support for nationalizing the housing companies.

The contrast between the two election results is striking.

In one part of Germany, voters are moving sharply toward a nationalist, anti-immigration party on the right.

In Berlin, they have moved toward a party advocating expansive state intervention, rent controls and housing nationalization.

What both results share is dissatisfaction with the parties that traditionally governed Germany.

That is the deeper problem facing Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

His CDU has already suffered major defeats in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and lost control of Berlin. At the national level, Reuters reported last week that the CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, were polling at only around 18% to 20%, well below their result in the previous federal election and behind the AfD.

Merz’s personal political position has weakened as well.

An INSA poll cited by Reuters found that 78% of respondents did not think he should remain chancellor, while even among CDU supporters a majority said they no longer wanted him leading the government.

Merz has rejected calls to change course fundamentally or resign.

After the AfD’s Saxony-Anhalt victory, he said the result had shaken the CDU “to its very foundations,” but insisted that Germany should continue supporting Ukraine and maintain its broader foreign-policy direction.

The immediate political consequences will differ from state to state.

The AfD may win the largest share of votes but still fail to govern because Germany’s other major parties continue to maintain a political “firewall” refusing coalition agreements with it. That means first place does not automatically translate into control of a state government.

Berlin is more straightforward.

The Left Party is expected to explore a coalition with the SPD and Greens. Both have indicated openness to negotiations, although the Greens have demanded that disputes surrounding accusations of antisemitism within sections of the Berlin Left Party be addressed first. The Left Party rejects claims that antisemitism is systemic within the party.

That distinction matters.

Germany is not simply undergoing a uniform shift toward either the right or the left.

It is polarizing in different directions depending on region and issue.

In eastern states, immigration, Russia, Ukraine and economic dissatisfaction have powered the AfD.

In Berlin, housing affordability and inequality have strengthened the Left Party.

The common loser is the political center.

The CDU and SPD once dominated German politics to such an extent that one or the other was usually at the center of government. Their combined vote shares in several recent elections now look dramatically smaller than they did a generation ago.

The question is whether this represents a temporary protest cycle or a deeper restructuring of German politics.

The AfD is no longer merely an opposition protest party in isolated regions. It is winning state elections and leading some national polls.

The Left Party, meanwhile, has shown that frustration with mainstream politics can also produce major gains from the opposite ideological direction, particularly in large urban areas where housing and living costs dominate voters’ concerns.

Germany’s political system has traditionally been defined by stability, incremental policy and strong centrist parties.

The latest elections suggest that model is under growing pressure.

The most important story may therefore not be that the far right won in one state while the far left won Berlin.

It is that increasingly large numbers of German voters are looking outside the traditional center for answers.